TPI Composites (TPIC) 7 Nov 242024 Q3 Earnings call transcript

Good afternoon, and welcome to TPI Composites' Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Jason Wegmann, Investor Relations for TPI Composites.

You may begin.

Thank you, operator. I would like to welcome everyone to TPI Composites' Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call.

We will be making forward-looking statements during this call that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially. A detailed discussion of applicable risks is included in our latest reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which can be found on our website, tpicomposites.com. Today's presentation will include references to non-GAAP financial measures.

You should refer to the information contained in the slides accompanying today's presentation for definitional information and reconciliations of historical non-GAAP measures to the comparable GAAP financial measures. With that, let me turn the call over to Bill Siwek, TPI Composites' President and CEO.

Thanks, Jason. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our call.

In addition to Jason, I am here with Ryan Miller, our CFO. Please turn to Slide 5.

Our third quarter was a big improvement over the first half of the year as we were able to post positive adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flows driven by the actions we've taken to restructure our portfolio and transition 10 lines to next-generation workhorse blades. It's also nice to get back to growth mode as our sales grew 23% sequentially over the second quarter of this year and 3% over the third quarter of last year. we believe our strategic positioning with our key customers will enable sustained long-term growth.

We continue to engage in productive discussions with our customers to understand their priorities and collaborate on mutual success.

As quality remains paramount, we have continued to maintain a measured and controlled approach to increasing production on new lines in Mexico to ensure a smooth transition.

We remain confident in our ability to meet customer demand and anticipate finishing the year on a strong trajectory for 2025. Discussions with customers on further expansion of our footprint continue. We've agreed with GE Renova to reopen our Iowa plant in mid-2025 to support their 2-megawatt platform, which has proven to be a popular option for lead powering. Discussions with other OEMs are progressing based on expected U.S. market expansion where we have recently secured additional U.S. manufacturing capacity as well as to serve the burgeoning onshore wind market in India as well as the Turkey market given the recent announcements by the Turkey government to increase its wind capacity threefold to 30 gigawatts by 2035.

Although the details on local content are still being finalized, it is anticipated that much of what will ultimately get installed in Turkey will either require blades that are manufactured locally or will provide additional incentives from locally produced blades.

We see this development as a potential positive for our long-term operations in Chertier. From an operational perspective, sales for the quarter were $380.8 million -- and while impacted by slower than originally planned production ramps, we were in line with our expectations and full year guidance. Adjusted EBITDA of $8 million in the quarter marks our expected return to positive EBITDA and However, it was lower than expected due to several factors.

First, our measured approach to transitions and start-ups to ensure adherence to increase quality standards for new blades and complex blade models extended our start-up and transition time lines leading to about $15 million in lower sales, along with higher start-up and transition costs at 2 of our facilities which impacted our adjusted EBITDA by approximately $5 million. This approach, however, ensures we can deliver increased volumes in 2025 and beyond more efficiently and profitably.

Second, inflation in Turkey led to a $4 million negative impact.

Third, we recorded a $7 million change in estimate from legacy warranty matters to account for updated information, revised inspection and repair procedures implemented during the quarter of course, inflation.

Finally, to support demand needs for the U.S. market in 2025 and beyond, we began investing additional resources to enable a 24/7 schedule at certain of our Mexico facilities. This will enable additional volume off the same number of lines with no or minimal CapEx, which will drive lower per blade costs and improve our long-term competitiveness. When looking at our ongoing operations without the specific charges I just outlined, our adjusted EBITDA margin in the third quarter would have been north of 6%, showing progress towards our long-term EBITDA targets. Utilization in the third quarter jumped to 89% as 7 of the 10 lines in start-up or transition achieved full rate production with the remaining 3 lines expected to get there in the first half of the fourth quarter.

Globally, we delivered 601 blade sets, representing 2.5 gigawatts of capacity during the quarter. Please turn to Slide 6.

As we move into the fourth quarter, all our regions are expected to be EBITDA positive with anticipated utilization rates over 90%. The fourth quarter is also expected to be our strongest free cash flow generation quarter of the year.

Our continued focus on lean principles and quality management has enhanced our production quality and improve our cost structure, but we still have significant opportunities.

So we'll continue to focus on eliminating waste and streamlining processes to achieve higher efficiency and reduced operating costs.

Moving forward, we will continue to invest in innovation and technology, ensuring we strengthen our competitive edge and position TPI as the premier blade provider in the onshore market.

Our supply chain continues to operate effectively with overall raw materials estimated to decrease year-over-year in 2025 by nearly 8%, while logistics costs have been somewhat volatile during 2024 and given multiple global events, our procurement strategies have minimized any operational and financial impacts.

We expect the same during 2025. With respect to the wind market, geopolitical events around the world have accelerated regional needs for energy independence and security. The global demand for clean energy continues to rise, driven by factors such as the growing need for data centers semiconductor chip manufacturers, the adoption of electric vehicles, the electrification of buildings and the desire to provide for this through net zero sources.

Over the course of the past few years, we have seen numerous government policy initiatives aimed at expanding the use of renewable energy, including the passing of the IRA in the U.S. and several policy initiatives in the EU that are expected to simplify regulations, speed up permitting and promote cross-border projects to accelerate climate neutrality.

We expect these trends in governmental policy will enable long-term revenue growth in the global onshore wind industry. Notwithstanding the recent U.S. election results, we are encouraged by the near-term demand we are seeing from our customers and therefore, anticipate continued revenue growth for TPI in the U.S. in 2025.

We expect this growth will be supported by blade lines operating at near full capacity throughout 2025, along with the planned reopening of our Iowa blade plant by mid-2025.

While the past 9 months have presented challenges, we believe we are strategically positioned with the right customers and blade types to thrive in the U.S. market for years to come.

Although it is too early to assess the impact of the outcome of the U.S. election many analysts believe that if President-elect Trump tries to roll back the current administration's climate agenda, including the IRA in part or in full, U.S. wind and solar sectors will remain resilient due to a strong state level support, including significant renewable manufacturing investment in red states, increasing private sector demand for power that will dictate an all of the above approach to capacity deployment and a relatively strong Republican support and Congress.

Turning to Europe. Long-term onshore market growth remains in sight.

However, these markets are dealing with many of the same issues as in the U.S., namely inflation permitting, transmission supply chain disruptions and labor availability. Historically, we have serviced the European market from our plants in Turkey.

However, the hyperinflationary environment that we have experienced in recent years in Turkey is not expected to subside anytime soon and although we can pass some of the incremental costs to our customers, these incremental costs make us less competitive into the EU as well as less profitable. Furthermore, while we have competed successfully with Chinese wave manufacturers for years. their recent aggressive push supported by the Chinese government to expand their capacity for Europe has added to the challenging competitive environment for supply into the EU. Unlike the U.S., which has implemented tariffs and generous tax loss to encourage near-shoring and domestic manufacturing, the EU has not yet taken as aggressive an approach to help level the playing field for component suppliers like TPI.

Nordex, our largest customer in Turkey, has 8 production lines scheduled to expire by the end of 2025.

Additionally, they have 2 lines in India that expire at the end of '24. Nordex has informed us that they will not renew the 2 lines in India.

However, we have already replaced those lines with 2 lines for Vestas.

While we are committed to our long-term relationship with Nordex and Turkey and elsewhere, it is uncertain whether or not they will extend their contracts beyond 2025 at this time.

However, I would suggest that should the recently announced plans of the Turkish government play out as we expect, demand for that capacity should be robust, and this would position Turkey as one of the largest wind markets in the region, given the market share enjoyed by both Nordex and Alcon, both companies stand to benefit from this development.

Given the challenges experienced in the third quarter, along with the extended transitions and start-ups, we are reducing our adjusted EBITDA outlook for the year to a loss of approximately 2%.

However, the fourth quarter is still expected to be EBITDA positive and the strongest free cash flow generation quarter of the year, leading us into what we expect to be a much stronger year financially in 2025.

Our current thinking on 2025 in context of the adjusted EBITDA target we have discussed the last few quarters has evolved based on updated information and customer decisions made in the last few months.

While we are still working through our annual plan for 2025, some of these customer decisions are creating some headwinds on that are going to be difficult to offset in the near term. The 2 biggest challenges are related to inflation, particularly in Turkey and demand in both Turkey and India from Nordic.

While it's still too early to provide you with a lot of specificity and therefore, formal guidance for 2025, we currently expect volumes for lines under contract in Turkey to be down approximately 40% in 2025 and compared to previous expectations. These factors have created a volume shortfall for us compared to what we had previously anticipated in 2025.

We are working to replace that volume as well as exploring other strategic alternatives to maximize the value of our Turkey operations.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Ryan to review our financial results.

Thanks, Bill. Please turn to Slide 8. In the third quarter of 2024, net sales were $380.8 million compared to $370.2 million for the same period in 2023, an increase of 2.8%. Net sales of wind blade tooling and other wind-related sales increased by $6.9 million or 1.9% to $369.1 million for the 3 months ended September 30, $2.24 as compared to $362.2 million in the same period in 2023. The increase was primarily due to higher average sales prices of wind blades due to changes in the mix of wind blade bottles produced, in particular, the startup of production at 1 of our previously idled facilities in Juarez, Mexico, favorable foreign currency fluctuations and an increase in wind blade inventory included in contract assets driven by the start-ups and transitions.

The increase in wood blade inventory directly correlates to higher sales under the cost-to-cost revenue recognition method for our wind blade contracts. These increases were partially offset by a 10% decrease in the number of wind blades produced due primarily to the number and pace of start-ups and transitions and expected volume declines based on market activity levels. Field service inspection and repair service sales increased by $3.7 million or 45.8% to $11.7 million for the 3 months ended September 30, 2024, as compared to $8 million in the same period in 2023. The increase was due primarily by the return of technicians deployed to revenue-generating projects versus time spent on nonrevenue-generating inspection and repair activities. Adjusted EBITDA was $8 million for the 3 months ended September 30, 2024, as compared to adjusted EBITDA of $0.2 million during the same period in 2023.

Adjusted EBITDA margin was 2.1% as compared to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 0.1% during the same period in 2023. The increase was primarily driven by the absence of losses from our Nordic Matamoros facility which was shut down at the end of the second quarter of 2024, benefits from foreign currency fluctuations, lower charges for changes in estimate for preexisting warranty campaigns a reduction in general and administrative costs due to lower employee compensation costs and an increase in revenue. These improvements were partially offset by increased labor costs in Turkey and Mexico and higher start-up and transition costs.

Moving to Slide 9. We ended the quarter with $126 million of unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and $606 million of net debt. Free cash flow was a negative $5.6 million in the third quarter of 2024 compared to negative free cash flow of $20.8 million in the same period in 2023. The net use of cash in the third quarter of 2024 was primarily due to interest and tax payments and capital expenditures, partially offset by positive adjusted EBITDA and other working capital changes. Notably, operating cash flow was a positive $1 million in the quarter. We believe our current cash position provides us the flexibility to meet near-term demand of the business and continue to invest in growth for lines under Rooftop today. In the fourth quarter, we expect positive free cash flow on lower start-up and transition costs, working capital improvements and positive EBITDA.

A summary of our financial guidance for 2024 can be found on Slide 10.

We are narrowing our full year 2024 revenue guidance to about $1.35 billion, which is in the middle of the previously guided range of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion.

For adjusted EBITDA, we are lowering our guidance to a loss of approximately 2% compared to the previous guidance of a positive adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 1%. This adjustment reflects the impact of our actual results in the third quarter as well as the quality-focused moderation of our start-ups and transitions. This adjustment also reflects investments we are making to vet some of our plants to 24/7 schedules so we can produce more blades next year on our existing lines in Mexico to support strong demand in the U.S.

And finally, similar to the fourth quarter of last year, we are planning to reduce our work in process inventory, which will create negative cost absorption impacts in our factories. This reduction is partially driven by 4 lines that will be transitioning over year-end and we are also planning to drive our work in process inventory levels down to free up cash on our balance sheet.

For the full year, our utilization guidance remains unchanged at 75% to 80%, and we anticipate capital expenditures of around $30 million which is at the top end of our previously guided range of $25 million to $30 million. These investments, including significant investments in innovation and technology are driven by our continued focus on achieving our long-term growth targets which also include investments in new lines in Iowa and India in the fourth quarter.

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Bill.

Thanks, Ryan. Please turn to Slide 12.

While we remain optimistic about achieving our long-term targets, the timing has shifted to the right a bit based on overall market conditions, increased competition outside the U.S. and a more deliberate approach to transitions and start-ups to ensure initial blade quality for new designs and to ensure stability of the process to enable long-term successful serial production.

We are encouraged by the progress we've made over the past year, including shedding the losses from both the Nordex Matamoros plant and the automotive business starting up or transitioning 10 new lines with workhorse blades and making significant improvements in streamlining operations and improving quality, all while doing it as safely as we ever have.

We expect to close out 2024 with our best quarter financially in the year while generating positive free cash flow and setting us up for a strong 2025.

Before we open the call for Q&A, I want to once again extend my gratitude to all our TPI associates for their continued commitment and dedication to TPI and our mission to safely decarbonize and electrify the world. And I want to welcome Jennifer Lowery, our newest member of the Board of Directors effective as of November 13, 2024. Jen brings over 25 years of experience in the energy sector, including senior positions with Exelon, Constellation Energy and AES, among others, and currently serves on the Boards of Clearway Energy and MYR Group. Jen has a great addition to our Board, and I look forward to working with her in the future.

I'll now turn the call back to the operator to open the call for questions.

[Operator Instructions] We'll go first to Eric Stein with Craig Hallum. Mr. Stein your line is open. Please check your button. We'll move next to Mark Strouse with JPMorgan.

Bill, I take your point that it's too early to kind of have a whole lot of visibility post election. But one of the things that has been thrown out there is potential for increased tariffs coming into the U.S. Can you just remind us on your contracts that you have with your facilities in Mexico how do those contracts work? If there are new tariffs that come on in the middle of a contract, who bears that risk and then kind of a quick follow-up on that point is, I mean, are there any kind of contingency efforts that you're looking at as far as potentially moving that production into the U.S.

Yes. Mark, thanks for the question. I mean we -- if you recall, way back in the day, there was a threat of tariffs before, and we did a bunch of work there. It depends a little bit on the contract and on the terms. Generally, it would be included in the cost of the product, the tariff. But again, it's a little bit -- it gets a little specific by customer depending.

So I can't give you a precise answer on that right now. But we'll -- obviously, we'll monitor that, we'll look at that, but I don't anticipate that being a big issue for us. And we are continuing to look at additional -- you might have picked up. We did secure some additional capacity in the U.S.

And so we will continue to look at U.S. capacity as well, but we don't anticipate we'll have any issues with what we've got in Mexico at this point.

Okay. And then, Ryan, just a quick.

So I take your point about kind of the volume in Turkey down more than you're expecting -- more than you were previously expecting in 2025. The target that you've thrown out there for more than $100 million in EBITDA next year, is that off the table now? Or are you able to provide any more color on what that could potentially look like?

I guess what I can do is a couple of things. One, I think volume-wise, we're still expecting growth next year on the top line. The strength that we have in the U.S. market and some of the investments we're making to go to 24/7 ships in Mexico, is a signal from us. We got a really strong demand in the U.S.

So I expect that volume to outpace that reduction that we quantified for Turkey.

I think it's a little too early for us right now. We're currently reacting and planning and figuring out where we can optimize things.

And so I kind of put you on hold until we get to -- when we announce the fourth quarter earnings, we'll give you an update there on the earnings side of things.

Our next question will come from Pavel Molchanov with Raymond James.

Let me zoom in on Turkey as well. The fact that you're seeing, as you said, 40% lower demand versus prior expectations, is that relating to lower wind newbuilds in Turkey domestically? Or is it something happening in the broader European conversation?

Pavel, thanks for the question.

I think it's more the latter. There's -- some of it is a shift to Chinese suppliers. And part of it is lower demand next year, whether it be in Turkey or in the broader -- the wider European market. It's a combination of both.

Why do you think Europe is struggling? I mean, I asked because it was less than 2 years ago, Europe was running out of gas quite literally in we saw record new builds.

Yes, it's a lot of things. It's not that there's not demand. I mean, they've got but they have similar challenges in Europe as we do in the U.S. as it relates to permitting, transmission, the grid. It's different country by country.

So there are a lot of different factors there.

So it's really -- there's a desire for it, there's the demand for it. We've got the capacity to deliver it, but it's really challenges around more of the regulatory side than anything that's creating the problems or the delays, I should say.

Okay. Last question. What is the latest on the kind of service operations and maintenance business unit that you guys have been working on?

Yes.

So you might have heard, we grew fairly substantially the top line this last quarter, and that's partially just a shift of resources from some of the warranty and sparing inspection work we were doing into more revenue-generating work. We're going to continue to grow that business. We see pretty healthy growth next year, both in the U.S. and in Europe.

So that is -- that does remain a focus for us, Pavel, to continue to grow that business alongside our manufacturing business.

And is that line item EBITDA positive?

Yes. It was pretty close to breakeven the last couple of quarters because of the amount of work that we were doing on inspection and repair. But moving forward, it's certainly EBITDA positive.

Our next question will come from Justin Clare with Roth Capital Partners.

So I wanted to just dig into Iowa a little bit more here. I was wondering if you could just share specifically how many lines are being added in that facility and then if you could talk about CapEx requirements or the potential start-up costs that could be incurred in ramping that up? And then just in terms of the timing, how should we think about the revenue impact there? Could you be kind of ramping volumes in Q3 and then at full capacity in Q4? Or how should we think about that?

Yes.

So the current plan is 2 lines ramping in the back half of the year, as you suggest.

So ramping in Q3, getting up to kind of full production speed by the fourth quarter. Pretty minimal CapEx, Justin. I mean this -- we're going to be building the same blade that we were building before in that factory.

So there's not a ton of CapEx. There's a little bit of upgrade that we need to do, but pretty minor. And then start-up costs will be pretty minor as well, a couple of million dollars. But for the year, we'll be about breakeven from an EBITDA standpoint for next year.

So we'll have some start-up costs early that will then recapture as we begin delivering blades in the back half of the year.

And then I thought you mentioned earlier that you did secure some additional capacity in the U.S. It sounds like that's beyond this facility. I was wondering if you could just elaborate on that a little bit. Is that a greenfield facility or another blade facility that you may be taking over? And then any sense for timing and the amount of capacity that could be added would be helpful.

Yes, it's a brownfield.

So it's a former blade facility. The capacity, depending on the size of the blade is upwards of 4 lines of capacity. And timing is still -- but we're working on a number of options there. But we do have the capacity and it does provide us with some -- it's a very good geographic location to serve some pretty important and large wind projects.

So we're pretty excited about it long term. But that's more to come on that probably early next year.

[Operator Instructions] We'll return to Eric Stine with Craig Hallum.

I'm jumping around on call.

So I can pretty much guarantee I'm asking -- thank you[Audio Gap].

[Operator Instructions] It appears that we have no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor over to Bill Siwek for any additional or closing comments.

Thank you, operator, and thank you again, everybody, for your time today and the continued interest and support of T. Look forward to the next quarter. Thank you.

Thank you. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation.

You may disconnect at this time.